Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Some Initial Musings on the Way Forward

Look for the good-In Illinois, the only candidate to whom I contributed money who won is our new Sen. Baldwin. Most of my life, I have wanted a new  program to put people to work to rebuild America. It is possible that President  Trump will get such  a bill passed, one that could dwarf Sec. clinton’s proposals.


Watch creating catastrophe where none exists-Sec. Clinton did win the popular vote. She came up short in states she required to win the electoral college. Donald Trump may well be sui generis.

Drill into data Here we will need to rely on political science models and statistical skills, but  my point is to use data to assess different questions-did Sec. Clinton lose potential votes due to her gender? If so, why, among what groups? Are we able to disentangle  sheer prejudice from other concerns, especially economic among the electorate? To what degree did hints of isolationism in Trump’s record attract folks? (After all, we have not had a declared war in my lifetime, but we have poured blood and treasure ito half commitments. With a volunteer army, we send the children of the working class into those conflicts that have had such poor  results.
How could 30% of Latinos vote for Mr Trump?
What are the policy and candidate issues that had so many women desert Sec. Clinton?

How to present facts-social psychology-Look at the new Carville book for a guide to argument. -Social psychology experiments provide a gold mine of ways to see how we are prone to error in decisions due to a variety of factors. Some of the work even speaks to persuasion and the advantage of personal experience to move the issue from abstraction.Its terror management theory goes a way to explain the appeal of “tough” candidates.

On the other hand, it is clear that we have moved from the tyranny of the merely factual. Interpretive schema seem to  override factual presentations. Lawyers have known this for a long time. That is why they labor so on opening and closing trial statements. Frank Luntz has developed the focus group into a linguistic gold mine. Democrats can do the same. We need to seek ways and test them of framing a convincing and cohesive story that helps to frame issues and candidates.

Interest group activity I just contributed to Sierra Club and the ACLU again.Small acts like this not only have cumulative significance, but they help stem the onrush of political despair and passivity.

Candidate recruitment-One of the reasons  democrats choose lousy candidates. Yes, i know that the primaries select to keep the selection out of the hands of the party insiders. Political parties exist to recruit candidates for nomination. Keeping an eye out for potential candidates contributes to the process.

Look to states in 2020-republicans are in control of at least 33 states. In part this is due to Republicans doing the hard work of selecting candidates and supporting them in local and state races. Democrats need to  help with the drawing of the new legislative districts after the census.


Arrogance and condescension-In discussion much of the liberal left is insufferable.Dogmatism afflicts us. Language White privilege v. community. Trump struck on nerve on political correctness, in part, because it is a language preserve of the liberal left. I do not think that critical race studies are a good tool in political debate and discussion.  The privilege argument often turns stereotypical, ignores cross cutting privileges and obstacles and  creates defensiveness and denial more than dialogue. I do wonder if particularism is a tactic for elections as opposed to integration. I fear the ethical colonialism of trying to shield groups from agency and criticism.


Painting extremism in the Republican Party. Some data analysis would point us to Americans being moderates.  The republican Party is unrecognizable to me from what I grew up with.  It is most difficult to find  moderates in the party at all. We call those few people who would consider compromise on occasion to be moderates. How? When  was a child the the John Birch Society was laughed into becoming an isolated  fringe group.  2) The Khan family’s moment wa effective in painting the  bigotry of Trumpism by demonstrating commitment to values. 3) Pick battles, already the leadership is planning to go after Medicare and maybe social Security. This will not succeed if opposed well. It could be a cudgel in the 2018 elections.


Working class-Since I was a kid in 1968, I have seen the erosion of support for Democrats for the party of their natural constituency. Some of it is cultural. I recall sitting in a bar u (udnerage of course) back in PA when one of the miners saw McGovern on TV-and I will clean up the language but it went:L I ain't voting for anybody who sounds like Liberace.Environmental movements have turned to job creation, but the history has been willingness to close down jobs  for the sake of the public health.In some ways, the liberal left is a beacon of the future of white collar workers, but it ignores pink collar and blue collar labor to its peril.


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